Tag Archive for chattanooga

John Miller | February 1, 2013
8 comments

EXCLUSIVE: E-Mail Obtained Via FOIA Request Reveals Sun Belt Expansion Candidates

envelope

If you haven’t already read my previous article, I submitted a FOIA request for conference realignment related documents from both Appalachian State & Georgia Southern. I received Georgia Southern’s documents today.

But after receiving the documents, I got an e-mail from Georgia Southern with additional documents that were not discovered in time to physically mail. There is a time limit associated with responding to a FOIA request in the state of GA, thus why they didn’t wait. Since my FOIA request specified that digital copies were acceptable, they e-mailed these additional documents.

In this e-mail, Georgia Southern’s AD Thomas Kleinlein received a “SBC EADA Fact Sheet” (Sun Belt Conference – Equity in Athletics Data Analysis - Fact Sheet) from Karl Benson the Sun Belt’s Commissioner. It basically compares financial numbers of a bunch of schools.

Kleinlein then forwarded it to someone named Jeff (within the athletics department?) asking for amplifying info on each school. It seems a bunch of the text of the e-mail was withheld by the school, unless Karl Benson’s email really did just say “and the sport expense data” and that’s it.

The fact sheet itself is the real jewel here, because it comes from Karl Benson and lists every Sun Belt school, then has the words “Potential Members” followed by a collection of school names. Note that I have no idea if these schools are SERIOUS candidates, but at the very least, these are schools that being somewhat considered.

sunbeltfactsheetemail

This is the original copy of the attachment: SBC EADA Fact Sheet.PDF

Note that the date of the attachment is only today’s date because it was forwarded to me today from their lawyers. The date of the email was Dec 21, 2012 @ 11:31AM.

The schools it lists are:

Appalachian State
Delaware
Georgia Southern
Idaho
Illinois State
Jacksonville State
James Madison
Lamar
Liberty
Missouri State
New Mexico State
Richmond
Sam Houston State
Towson
UT Chattanooga

 I follow Sun Belt expansion as close as anyone in the game. Most of these are the usual suspects. Some of these are schools, like UT-Chattanooga and Illinois State, I thought only people on message boards were talking about. But apparently the Sun Belt is actually considering them as well. Other schools like Richmond & Towson seemed to come out of left field for me, but make sense in a way.

For those of you that wanted some kind of smoking gun/official invite, I’m sorry. I just requested the FOIA and this is what they gave me. I hope you find it interesting. Check back soon for more documents from my FOIA request.

For all the latest conference realignment news follow me on Twitter: @AppStateNation

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John Miller | November 3, 2012
5 comments

#14 Appalachian State Upsets #1 Georgia Southern – SoCon Tie-Breaking Rules

(Picture found on Twitter: @Card88Well)

As you probably already know, Appalachian State beat #1 ranked Georgia Southern today 31-28! Georgia Southern struggled on special teams with 3 missed field goals. It looked to me as if the first 2 were blocked. App missed a field goal of its own, as well.

It was a really good matchup. They couldn’t stop our pass, and we couldn’t stop their run. That is, until late in the game, when App’s defense found its stride. Combine that with 80 yards worth of penalties on Georgia Southern, and you see the difference.

Georgia Southern fans are still crying about a play where App WR Sean Price clearly stepped out of bounds around the 30 or so, but the refs didn’t see it and we got a TD. I agree it was a bad no-call. But frankly we probably would have scored there a couple of plays later anyway. Their defense just couldn’t stop us for the most part. But bad calls happen in any game in both directions. They may point to others, but that was the only really bad call I saw, and it would not have necessarily changed the outcome of the game in and of itself.

The other big news it that Wofford lost to Samford in 2OT 24-17. That creates a tie at the top of the SoCon standings.

So what does that mean? Let’s break it down.

Georgia Southern 7-2 (6-2 SoCon) - Already at least a SoCon title-share
Wofford 7-2 (5-2 SoCon) - A win next week clinches a title-share
Appalachian State 7-3 (5-2 SoCon) - A win next week clinches a title-share
Chattanooga 5-4 (4-2 SoCon) - Win 2 remaining games clinches a title-share
Samford 6-3 (4-3 SoCon) - out of contention
Citadel 5-4 (4-3 SoCon) - out of contention
Furman 3-6 (2-4 SoCon) - out of contention
Elon 3-6 (1-5 SoCon) - out of contention
Western Carolina 1-9 (0-8 SoCon) - out of contention

Essentially, there can be up to 3 SoCon champions this year. Chattanooga and Wofford still play each other, so that will knock one or the other out. There are also scenarios where Georgia Southern gets it by themselves or Georgia Southern and 1 other team share it.

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Here are the official SoCon tie-breaking rules pulled from the SoCon website:

Championship Determination Tie-breaking Procedures: The Southern Conference champion shall be the team that finishes with the best won-loss percentage in Conference games during the regular season. In the case that two or more schools finish with identical won-loss records, they shall be declared co-champions.

NCAA Automatic Bid Tie-breaking Procedures: The Conference champion shall be awarded an automatic bid to the NCAA FCS Playoffs, provided it is eligible to compete in the post-season under NCAA guidelines. In the event that co-champions are declared, the automatic bid will be awarded as follows:
A. In the case of a two-way tie, the automatic bid will be awarded to the winner of the game between the tied teams during the regular season;
B. In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken, the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken. If the tie is still not broken, the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered. If this does not resolve the tie, then the automatic bid will be determined by a random draw conducted by the Commissioner;
C. In the event of multiple ties after a three-way tie, the same procedure as used to break a three-way tie will be applied until the tie is broken.

This is by no means gospel, but based on my reading of the rules above, this is what I think would happen. (If anyone has a better grasp of these vague tie-breaking rules please post in the comments!)

Most Likely Scenario: AppState beats Furman / Wofford beats Chattanooga

Co-Champions: Georgia Southern/AppState/Wofford

Head to Head Tiebreaker: SOLVES NOTHING. Georgia Southern beat Wofford, Wofford beat AppState, and AppState beat Georgia Southern.

Next Highest Seed Tiebreaker: SOLVES NOTHING. Depends on who the next highest seed is. It would likely be Chattanooga, since they have wins against Samford & The Citadel and would probably beat Elon in their final game. In that instance, it solves nothing since Chattanooga lost to all 3 teams in this scenario.

2nd Highest Seed Tiebreaker: Wofford knocked out? It would likely be Samford since they beat The Citadel and will probably win their last conference game against Elon. In that case, Wofford is knocked out since Samford beat Wofford. Does that mean it goes back to the beginning? If it it does, App wins the head to head, but if it doesn’t:

3rd Highest Seed Tiebreaker: SOLVES NOTHING. Probably The Citadel. App State & Georgia Southern both lost to The Citadel.

4th Highest Seed Tiebreaker: SOLVES NOTHING. Probably Furman, since they beat Elon. Hypothetically in this scenario both Georgia Southern and App State will have beaten them.

5th Highest Seed Tiebreaker: SOLVES NOTHING. Probably Elon, they lost to Georgia Southern and App State.

6th Highest Seed Tiebreaker: SOLVES NOTHING. Western Carolina lost to everybody.

Fewest points allowed Tiebreaker: ??? I’m kind of fuzzy on this one, does it mean head to head, or among all conference games, or among all games? I’m thinking all conference games is what they are getting at. In that case, Georgia Southern is at 172 & App State is currently at 210. That means Georgia Southern wins the tiebreaker. If it’s head to head, obviously App state wins, but that seems redundant with the first tiebreaker option.

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But to reiterate, this is based on a lot of “what-ifs” and “I think this rule means that”. So we’ll have to wait to find out for sure. Our best case scenario is us beating Furman and Wofford losing to Chattanooga. We would win the head-to-head tie-breaker right away.

In either case, we control our destiny for a share of the SoCon title and we are making it to the playoffs either way! IT’S GREAT TO BE A MOUNTAINEER!!!

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John Miller | October 14, 2012
3 comments

SoCon Football Standings: Analyzing the Rest of the Regular Season

According to conference RPI, the SoCon is the 2nd best FCS conference in the country, behind only the CAA. In the FBS, don’t look now but C-USA is the worst conference (even below the WAC) and the Sun Belt is second only to the MWC among so-called non-AQ conferences.

So back to the SoCon, with 5 weeks left let’s take a look at what’s left on each team’s schedule and what their playoff chances are:

1. Georgia Southern

5-1 (4-1 SoCon)

Remaining Schedule: @ Furman, @ Chattanooga, Appalachian State, Howard, @ Georgia

Playoff Chances: Basically a lock. They’ll lose to Georgia and maybe us. But they’ll definitely beat Howard and they’ll need 1 W between Furman & Chattanooga.

 

2. Wofford

5-1 (3-1 SoCon)

Remaining Schedule: @ Appalachian State, The Citadel, @ Samford, Chattanooga, @ South Carolina

Playoff Chances: Not as much of a lock as you’d think. Their win over Lincoln (PA) doesn’t count because it was D-II. They’ll lose to South Carolina for sure.  That means they need to go at least 3-1 on a tough remaining FCS schedule. I’ll give them a 60% chance of doing it.

 

3. Appalachian State

5-2 (3-1 SoCon)

Remaining Schedule: Wofford, @ Western Carolina, @ Georgia Southern, Furman, Bye Week

Playoff Chances: Very likely. We only have 4 games left, but we only need to win 2 of them to make the playoffs. …READ MORE

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John Miller | October 4, 2012
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WEEK 6: The OTHER Games App State Fans Should Watch

 

Thursday, Oct 4

8:00PM East Carolina @ UCF

Our game against ECU seems like a lifetime ago but they’ve been doing alright for themselves since then. This is an early week game that is actually going on as I type this. Because of that, I won’t go into any details but I’ll go ahead and make a quick prediction.

Prediction: ECU 27 / UCF 33

Saturday, Oct 6

1:30PM Furman @ #5 Wofford

Furman had a rough start this year, losing their first 3 games. The first by 3 points, the second in triple overtime. Last week they surprised me a little by dominating WCU. Wofford actually beat WCU with almost the same exact final score that Furman did (49-20 vs 45-24).

I can’t stress enough that Wofford has not played anyone yet. They’ve dominated against weak competition though. An upset isn’t out of the realm of possibility if the stars line up, but I sure wouldn’t expect it.

Viewing Options: Streaming Video / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: Furman 27 / Wofford 46

3:30PM #8 Georgia Southern @ Western Carolina

This gets my vote for most boring game of the week. The Catamounts sure picked a bad weekend to hold homecoming (but I guess any week is a bad week when you’re them). A win by WCU would be a monumental upset, and would be something they could really build off of. Personally, I would love to see them do it. But without a D-I win in the past 2 seasons, they’re just not ready yet.

Viewing Options: Streaming Video / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: Georgia Southern 38 / WCU 10

3:00PM #22 The Citadel @ Samford

After the best 3-game start in perhaps their history, The Citadel has dropped the last 2 to NC State and Chattanooga. They’re still very much in the conference championship race but they’ll need to get past Samford and Wofford to do it.

Speaking of which, Samford still has a shot at a championship but they have the toughest road ahead with games against App State, Chattanooga, Wofford, & Elon left. I just can’t see them doing it. I doubt they even make it past this weekend, but I’ll be rooting for them. This is obviously the best SoCon game of the week.

Viewing Options: Streaming Video / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: The Citadel 28 / Samford 21

3:35PM Montana @ N Colorado

After slipping out of the top-25 this past week, Montana could sure use a win. This week they get the Big Sky’s version of Western Carolina. They don’t have a D-I win and they’re getting blown out so badly it’s hard to watch.  Montana can really only afford to lose 1 more game if they want to make the playoffs. I don’t think it’ll be this weekend.

Viewing Options: TV – Root Sports / Live Audio

Prediction: Montana 34 / N Colorado 14

Chattanooga – Bye Week

The Mocs get an extra week to prepare for Furman (and to celebrate their upset over The Citadel).

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John Miller | September 30, 2012
One comment

APP STATE WEEK 5: What Did We Learn?

How cool did those alt-uni’s look? It almost makes me think we need to bring something similar into our regular rotation.

I had a rough week on my predictions going 3-4 (31-12 overall). But I don’t mind one bit because those upsets helped us out tremendously in the conference title race.

Coastal Carolina 14 / @ #17 Appalachian State 55

I predicted a blowout win, but our guys exceeded even my expectations this week. Incredible job!

OFFENSE

399 Rushing yards and 285 passing yards. What else can I say? We absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage. We had the ball 13 times and on 9 of those times we scored. We did throw 1 interception but that was our only turnover of the game. If you told me we could play all of our games with only 1 turnover I would take it.

Steven Miller averaged 11.9yds a carry. Insane. He had 218 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns. His longest was an incredible 75yd touchdown run.

Sean Price showed up again today with 8 receptions for 128yds. The longest being a 69yd touchdown strike. He had 2 touchdowns on the game.

DEFENSE

For me, this was the question mark going into the game. Sure our defense did an awesome job against Chattanooga, but Coastal was supposed to have a really high-powered passing offense.

Minus two long drives for touchdowns in the 2nd quarter, I have nothing to complain about. They held Coastal to 114yds on the ground and a 190 in the air. Keep in mind, Coastal put up 356yds in the air against FBS Toledo just last week.

Jeremy Kimbrough had his usual excellent game with 11 tackles. Brandon Grier threw in 6 more. Stephen Burns did a nice job of forcing a fumble.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Although they’re expected, Drew Stewart & co did a nice job of making all their field goals and extra points.

Our worst play of the game was also somehow my favorite. In the 4th quarter, Sam Martin kicked-off 65 yards to the 0yd line. Then Coastal returned the ball 87 yards to the App 13. But it would have been a touchdown if Sam Martin hadn’t made an incredible tackle. I love that the kicker didn’t give up. Coastal would soon after fumble the ball back to us.

I think one of our biggest problems right now is kickoff coverage. I think Sam Martin is doing a good job of kicking the ball so hard that that there is no chance of return. However, I think that’s masking the fact that our kickoff coverage has holes. I’m sure we’ll be working on that this week. Overall, fantastic game!

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#6 Wofford 49 / @ Elon 24

If I told you Wofford would only have 16 passing yards, you would tell me that they lost in blowout fashion right? Well, on top of that they had 500 rushing yards. That’s pretty amazing.

Meanwhile, Elon had the opposite strategy. They had 361yds in the air but only 49 on the ground. I thought they would do a little better after almost beating Georgia Southern last week. But I guess Wofford is as good as advertised.

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Western Carolina 24 / @ Furman 45

I actually thought Western would get their first D-I win of the last two seasons here. What was I thinking? They’ve got a looooong way to go if they were beaten this badly by lowly Furman. WCU actually put up a decent number of yards, but it was like their defense never came out of the locker room.

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Samford 16 / @ #10 Georgia Southern 35

I had a chance to watch most of this game live after the App game ended. This was really a game of momentum. When it started, these two teams looked really evenly matched but with different styles of play. Then GSU caught a pick 6. The crowd and their defense responded off the energy from that big play.

Like the Wofford/Elon game this was a tale of two styles. GSU only had 34yds in the air, but 360 yards rushing. Samford, who usually has more of a balanced attack, had 291 yds in the air, but only 63 yds rushing. Once again Rushing > Passing when you can only do one well.

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Chattanooga 28 / @ #11 The Citadel 10

THANK YOU CHATTANOOGA!!! They gave us our first conference win of the season last week. This week they put the conference race back in our hands. Now we control our own destiny for at least a share of the SoCon title. But we need The Citadel to lose again to control our own destiny for the autobid.

Just like I was clueless when The Citadel destroyed us, I’m clueless as to how they lost to Chattanooga. The stats were almost identical between the two teams across the board. The big difference I see is that Chattanooga won the turnover battle 2-0. The Citadel also had 2 drives end on downs. Chattanooga’s only major mistake was a missed field goal early in the game.

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UTEP 18 / @ East Carolina 28

Our loss to ECU doesn’t look so bad anymore. Each team traded 3 interceptions a piece in this sloppy game. UTEP threw in a fumble for good measure. I guess their excuse is that it was raining and the ball was wet. In any case, I hope ECU keeps on winning.

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#21 Montana 26 / @ #7 Eastern Washington 32

Wow, what a heartbreaker for Montana. I really thought they were going to win this one. E Washington was up 17-10 at the half. But Montana roared back and was up 26-24 with just 2:19 left in the game. But E Washington recovered their onsides kick and turned that into a touchdown with only 00:53 left on the clock. Montana was able to move the ball to the EWU 29 but just didn’t have enough time left to score.

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John Miller | September 28, 2012
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VIDEO: App State Football – Living My Dreams

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John Miller | September 28, 2012
One comment

WEEK 5: The OTHER Games App State Fans Should Watch

App State has a key game tomorrow towards ensuring an at-large playoff berth. But in terms of winning our conference, it’s the games that we’re not playing in this week that are more important. Actually, we’re the only SoCon team not playing a conference game tomorrow. Let’s take a look:

Saturday, Sept 28

1:30PM #6 Wofford @ Elon

Elon gets the home advantage after NEARLY taking down Georgia Southern last week. That recent experience playing against the triple option should help them. However, Wofford has the bigger advantage in that they had 2 full weeks to prepare for this game. They should be healthy, well-rested, and well-prepared. The only thing that gives me pause is that Wofford hasn’t really played anyone yet. Upset alert?! (I hope so!)

Viewing Options: TV – None / Streaming Video / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: Wofford 30 / Elon 24

1:30PM Western Carolina @ Furman

Western Carolina had a 4pt heartbreaking loss against Samford last week. They’re still looking for their first D-I win of the season (they didn’t have a D-I win last season either). If they’re going to get one, this is the week. Furman lost to Samford by a similar score of 3 earlier in the season. Last week they got their first win against a lousy Presbyterian team. This is the “Battle for the Bottom”. At this point, I’m slightly more impressed with WCU and I don’t think Furman’s homefield advantage is that big. It could go either way though.

Viewing Options: TV – None / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: Western Carolina 27 / Furman 24

6:00PM Samford @ #10 Georgia Southern

This is the “Underrated Vs Overrated” game of the week. Samford is the best they have ever been. They’re undefeated and actually ranked in some of the polls (not in the Sports Network poll). Georgia Southern lost to The Citadel. Their best win is a 3pt marquee victory over Elon . If there was a way for both of these teams to lose I would wish for that. But either outcome helps us in a way. I think Georgia Southern wins at home, but they have their hands full.

Viewing Options: TV – ESPN3 / Streaming Video / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: Samford 21 / Georgia Southern 27

6:00PM Chattanooga @ #11 The Citadel

The Citadel is, as of the right now, the best team in the SoCon. You can throw out their 52-14 loss to NC State last week. Meanwhile, Chattanooga will have to do everything this season just to prove it hasn’t fallen all the way to the bottom of the conference. They won’t prove that this week (but I wish they would!)

Viewing Options: TV – None / Streaming Video / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: Chattanooga 13 / The Citadel 41

7:00PM UTEP @ East Carolina

The ECU game feels like a distant memory at this point. This week they face UTEP, a team that has struggled against tough teams so far. Their 3 losses were to Wisconsin, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. They did beat NMSU. It’s hard to tell where they’re at, but they’re going to be excited to play a team they have a good chance of beating. ECU is likely demoralized after losing so badly to UNC last week.

Viewing Options: TV – WITN / Streaming Video / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: UTEP 28 / ECU 14

7:15PM #21 Montana @ #7 E Washington

Montana is 1 or 2 losses away from making our win against them seem mediocre. A win here from them would really help our strength of schedule. E Washington is ranked so high, partly because of their FBS win over Idaho. But then again, Idaho hasn’t even come close to winning a game this season. Last week, E Washington beat a winless Weber State team by 6. I think you can throw out the rankings for this one. In reality, E Washington hasn’t beaten anyone yet. I like Montana here.

Viewing Options: TV – Root Sports / Live Audio / Live Stats

Prediction: Montana 34 / E Washington 24

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NOTE: All rankings are based on Sports Network’s weekly FCS poll.

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John Miller | September 22, 2012
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GAMEDAY: #17 Appalachian State @ Chattanooga

It’s gonna be a long wait until tonight to see this game! I’d really like to see us rebound big after last week. Make sure to join the in-game conversation on Twitter by using @AppStateNation

Kickoff: 6:00PM

TV: None

Online Video Stream: GoMocs TV / GoASU TV — (You can watch it for free if you have a GoASU TV subscription, but it will be the Chattanooga feed/announcers)

Live Tweet Conversation: @AppStateNation

Live Audio: GoASU

Radio: Appalachian IMG Sports Network

Resources: Game Prediction & Other Games to Watch

Live Stats: GoASU

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John Miller | September 21, 2012
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VIDEO: App State Football 2012 – Life After The Citadel

This is a pretty epic fan video posted yesterday on YouTube.

Also check out the new “Leave Your Mark” video at PlayAtTheRock.com. I wasn’t able to find it on YouTube to embed.

Category: Football, Videos | Tags: , , ,
John Miller | September 19, 2012
4 comments

WEEK 4 @ Chattanooga: or How Yosef Got His Groove Back

So far this season I’ve done the remixed ECU logo, the Yosef/Montana Grizzly Bear fight to the death, and the Citadel Doormat (shortly followed by an MIB memory wipe). This week, I did a remix of the classic Academy Award Eligible film How Stella Got Her Groove Back.

Considering how awful my prediction was last week, I almost didn’t want to do this article. Then I remembered that everyone was wrong last week. Hell I’m sure even The Citadel didn’t predict the beat down that took place. So until we play this week’s game we need something to talk about, here’s a prediction:

OVERVIEW

Chattanooga has 0 Div-I wins this season. Sure they beat D-II Glenville State last week, but that doesn’t count towards the minimum needed for playoff eligibility. (Why even schedule those games?) First they lost big to USF and then lost by 3 to a ranked Jacksonville State team.

Chattanooga isn’t a great team but they’re dangerous. The last couple of times we have played them, we won by the skin of our teeth. This time we face them IN Chattanooga for their HOMECOMING GAME. This could very well be the largest home attendance they have all year, so the home field advantage will likely be a big factor. We won’t be intimidated, but they will be extra motivated.

CHATTANOOGA’S OFFENSE

Chattanooga is in their second year of running what they call the “pro spread” offense. Their offensive coordinator, Marcus Satterfield, was quoted during the preseason as saying

“I think now we know there’s a rhyme or reason for what we’re doing. Last year I can’t promise you we had any rhyme or reason for what we did other than, hey, that looks like it would be fun, let’s try that.”

I hope he was joking. Anyway, expect to see a mobile quarterback with some keepers, and a lot of runs to the outside. I can guarantee you they will try to adapt The Citadel’s gameplan against us for their offense. The good news is Chattanooga ranks last in the SoCon for scoring offense and second to last in total offense. You could chalk that up to a lack of big plays. The bad news is we just flat out suck defensively on 3rd down. We can’t let them grind out big drives. I sure hope we made some defensive adjustments in practice this week.

CHATTANOOGA’S DEFENSE

This is their bread and butter. Last week they held Glenville State scoreless. If that doesn’t impress you (and it shouldn’t) they are ranked 12th in the COUNTRY in total defense. That’s good for 2nd best in the SoCon behind GA Southern. They’re also 23rd in the country for turnover margin, not too shabby. That matches up their strength against our strength, our offense. We’re ranked 28th in the country in total offense. Last week we struggled offensively in the first half but other than that we have been fine. Obviously our ability to score will be key.

Conclusion

This is going to be a really tough game. I’m hoping that we just didn’t matchup well against The Citadel. I’m going to say that the team that showed up against Montana is the one that will show up in Chattanooga. Our defense should be very familiar with defending the spread. Likewise, their defense should be very familiar with it as well. The keys to this game will be our defense on 3rd downs and not committing turnovers on offense. I can’t guarantee a win, but I wouldn’t pick against us.

Prediction

#17 Appalachian State – 27 / Chattanooga – 24

 

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